San José State sits at 3–2 after a road win over Hawai'i in Week 5, but GIE's rating hasn't budged—they remain at –15.1, ranked 119th. The Spartans are treading water: their third-down conversion rate of 41% and a red-zone TD rate of just 15% expose a team that moves the ball in fits but rarely capitalizes inside the 20. Late-game leverage performance of 4.31 suggests they're competitive in close moments, yet the model projects zero playoff odds and only 0.024 probability of winning the Mountain West. Up next is Wyoming at home in Week 6—a chance to prove the rating wrong, though GIE's expectation sits around 7.2 wins for the full season.