Wyoming
Cowboys · Mountain West
Year-3 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.10 W vs. preseason expectation
Season Projection · 2026 W0
10,000 simsPath to Glory
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
0%
Baseline projection.
-
at Colorado StateAway · Sep 5 -
at Central MichiganAway · Sep 19 -
at San José StateAway · Oct 10
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Returning production · 2026
- Quarterback 100% (4/4 )
- Offensive line 84% (16/19 players)
- Skill (RB/WR/TE) 53% (26/31 )
- Front 7 (DL/LB) 90% (31/34 )
- Secondary 80% (19/22 )
- Special teams 100% (5/6 )
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
Portal additions · 2026
16 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
- Markell Holman RB ← Western Illinois 92 impact
- Diore Hubbard RB ← West Virginia 69 impact
- Tyler Hughes QB ← William & Mary 62 impact
- Travis Franklin Jr. S ← Jacksonville State 39 impact
- Jett Vincent S ← Colorado State 25 impact
- Jack Dunkley DE ← Duquesne 14 impact
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Situational efficiency · 2025
FBS percentile rank- 3rd-down conversion 32.7% 27th — below avg
- Red-zone TD rate 14.0% 41th — below avg
- 4th-down aggression 33.6% 36th — below avg
- Late & close 6.2 yds/play 78th — strong
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Schedule
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
- Wk 1Sep 5
atColorado StatePac-1256%Win prob - Wk 2Sep 12vsNorthern Colorado—
- Wk 3Sep 19
atCentral MichiganMid-American35%Win prob - Wk 4Sep 26
vsHawai'iMountain West21%Win prob - Wk 5Oct 3
atNorth Dakota StateMountain West— - Wk 6Oct 10
atSan José StateMountain West52%Win prob - Wk 7Oct 17
vsNorthern IllinoisMountain West73%Win prob - Wk 8Oct 24
vsAir ForceMountain West33%Win prob - Wk 10Nov 8
atUNLVMountain West9%Win prob - Wk 11Nov 14
atUTEPMountain West61%Win prob - Wk 12Nov 22
vsNew MexicoMountain West23%Win prob - Wk 13Nov 28
vsUConnFBS Independents15%Win prob
Latest Stories
More coming
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.