2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Wyoming at North Dakota State
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 7:30 PM UTC
Fargodome
Wyoming
Mountain West
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -15.0
- National rank
- 118
- Proj. wins
- 4.6
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
North Dakota State
Mountain West
- Record
- 4-0
- Rating
- 10.6
- National rank
- 35
- Proj. wins
- 10.2
- Playoff prob.
- 58%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Wyoming
3%
North Dakota State
97%
North Dakota State 90% CI: 96% – 98% Δ rating 25.6
North Dakota State is the model's favorite at 97%. Wyoming has a 3% path. League-prior home-field adjustment of +2.5 rating points baked in for North Dakota State.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Wyoming offense
27 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
North Dakota State offense
33 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Light drizzle
Temperature
46°F
Precipitation
19%
Wind
17 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 7:30 PM UTC
- Venue
- Fargodome
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No