Georgia Southern

Eagles · Sun Belt

Head coach Clay Helton Year 4 with Georgia Southern

Year-4 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.65 W vs SP+ expected · n=59

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims

4.6

Expected wins

5-7

Proj record

2 to 8

Win range (90%)

#105 (82–126)

Final rank (90%)

Make playoff

Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

Baseline projection.

vs Charleston Southern

Home · Sep 5
at Jacksonville State

Away · Sep 19
vs Houston

Home · Sep 26
at Coastal Carolina

Away · Oct 3
vs App State

Home · Oct 31

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

58 PCI

Quarterback 50% (3/6 players)
Offensive line 79% (15/19 players)
Skill (RB/WR/TE) 58% (19/33 players)
Front 7 (DL/LB) 47% (15/32 players)
Secondary 68% (17/25 players)
Special teams 44% (4/9 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank

3rd-down conversion 42.3% 82th — strong
Red-zone TD rate 16.5% 68th — average
4th-down aggression 34.7% 41th — below avg
Late & close 5.8 yds/play 71th — strong

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

Recap May 9, 2026

Georgia Southern: 2025 Week 16 recap

Georgia Southern sits at 7–6 after a 24–19 road win over Marshall in Week 14, holding a rating of –9.4 and ranking 103rd in GIE. The Eagles picked up a crucial victory in a tight contest, showcasing enough defensive discipline to hold the…

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.