Sun Devils · Big 12
Head coach Kenny Dillingham Year 4 with Arizona State
Year-4 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.65 W vs. preseason expectation
No remaining game changes Arizona State's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
| Week | Opponent | Result or win prob.Result or win probability |
|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 Sep 6 | vs Morgan State Non-FBS | Win, 70-7 Final |
| Wk 2 Sep 12 | at Texas A&M SEC | Loss, 20-48 Final |
| Wk 3 Sep 19 | vs Kansas Big 12 · neutral | Win, 24-17 Final |
| Wk 4 | Bye | |
| Wk 5 Oct 4 | vs Baylor Big 12 | Loss, 19-55 Final |
| Wk 6 Oct 11 | vs Hawai'i Mountain West | Win, 30-12 Final |
| Wk 7 Oct 17 | at Texas Tech Big 12 | Loss, 25-53 Final |
| Wk 8 Oct 24 | vs Kansas State Big 12 | Win, 28-17 Final |
| Wk 9 Oct 31 | at BYU Big 12 | Loss, 20-27 Final |
| Wk 10 Nov 8 | vs Colorado Big 12 | Win, 20-10 Final |
| Wk 11 Nov 14 | at UCF Big 12 | |
| Wk 12 Nov 21 | vs Oklahoma State Big 12 | |
| Wk 13 Nov 28 | at Arizona Big 12 | |
More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
GIE projects a -4.5 rating drop and a -17.9pp shift in playoff probability if Arizona State loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=6 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
31 score
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
+1.3 rating
24 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
| Player | From | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Omarion MillerWR From Colorado | Colorado | 147 |
| Owen LongLB From Colorado State | Colorado State | 147 |
| Jessiah McGrewDB From Florida International | Florida International | 145 |
| Lyrik RawlsDB From Kansas | Kansas | 130 |
| Reed HarrisWR From Boston College | Boston College | 122 |
| Jalen ThompsonDL From Michigan State | Michigan State | 106 |
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
