4thand4cast

Search the site.

Try , , or .

Powered by Pagefind

Arizona State

Sun Devils · Big 12

Head coach Kenny Dillingham Year 3 with Arizona State

Year-3 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.10 W vs SP+ expected · n=21

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
5.8
Expected wins
6-6
Proj record
3 to 9
Win range (90%)
#61 (36–85)
Final rank (90%)
0%
Make playoff
0%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

0%

Baseline projection.

  • at Arizona
    Away · Nov 28
  • vs Kansas
    Neutral site · Sep 19
  • vs Kansas State
    Home · Oct 24
  • vs Hawai'i
    Home · Oct 10
  • vs Baylor
    Home · Oct 3

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

51 PCI
  • Quarterback 50% (3/6 players)
  • Offensive line 43% (10/23 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 45% (13/29 players)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 66% (21/32 players)
  • Secondary 65% (15/23 players)
  • Special teams 43% (3/7 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

If QB1 is out (Sam Leavitt)

GIE projects a -4.5 rating drop and a -17.9pp shift in playoff probability if Arizona State loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=6 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 31.6% 23th — bottom tier
  • Red-zone TD rate 14.8% 50th — average
  • 4th-down aggression 46.9% 90th — elite
  • Late & close 4.4 yds/play 28th — below avg

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

  • Recap

    Arizona State: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Arizona State sits at No. 60 overall with a 3.9 rating and an 8–5 record heading into Week 16. The Sun Devils took a 23–7 loss at home to Arizona in Week 14, a result that underscores the competitive gap between the two programs right…

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.