2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Baylor at Arizona State
Friday, October 2, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Mountain America Stadium
Baylor
Big 12
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 1.4
- National rank
- 71
- Proj. wins
- 5.1
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Arizona State
Big 12
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 3.9
- National rank
- 60
- Proj. wins
- 5.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Baylor
32%
Arizona State
68%
Arizona State 90% CI: 60% – 76% Δ rating 2.5
Arizona State is the model's favorite at 68%. Baylor has a 32% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.7 rating points baked in for Arizona State — venue-specific learned value (n=55 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Baylor offense
34 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Arizona State offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, October 2, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Mountain America Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No