2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Baylor at Arizona State
Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 2:30 AM UTC
Mountain America Stadium
Baylor
Big 12
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 6.8
- National rank
- 48
- Proj. wins
- 6.7
- Playoff prob.
- 4%
Arizona State
Big 12
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 5.3
- National rank
- 55
- Proj. wins
- 6.6
- Playoff prob.
- 1%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Baylor
43%
Arizona State
57%
Arizona State 90% CI: 47% – 66% Δ rating 1.5
Arizona State is the model's favorite at 57%. Baylor has a 43% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.7 rating points baked in for Arizona State — venue-specific learned value (n=55 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Baylor offense
34 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Arizona State offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Clear
Temperature
89°F
Precipitation
2%
Wind
4 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 2:30 AM UTC
- Venue
- Mountain America Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No