Sam Houston sits at 1–3 with a rating of –14.1, ranked 117th by GIE, and hasn't moved in the model's assessment over the past week. The Bearkats' most recent outing—a 49–14 road loss to Texas Tech in Week 4—underscored a troubling offensive ceiling. That red-zone TD rate of 14% tells the story: when Sam Houston gets close, it stalls. Third-down conversion sits at 22%, a recipe for stalled drives and short fields. GIE projects them to win 4.8 games this season and assigns a 0% playoff probability. Next up is a trip to Liberty on October 8th—a matchup that'll test whether the Bearkats can generate any sustained momentum before the season slips further out of reach.