Oregon State: 2026 Week 12 recap

Oregon State's collapse is real. The Beavers dropped 2.8 rating points after a 42–21 home loss to Texas State in Week 10, falling to No. 56 overall with a 5–4 record. That's not a stumble; it's a structural problem. GIE now projects them at 5.7 expected wins for the season, and their playoff probability has flatlined at zero. The red zone has been particularly brutal—a 19% touchdown rate when opportunities should convert at a much higher clip—while third-down efficiency sits at 37%. Boise State visits this week. Oregon State needs to prove the Texas State game was an outlier, not the new baseline.