Arizona: 2026 Week 12 recap

Arizona sits at 21st in GIE's rankings with a 7–2 record, though last week's narrow 29–28 home win over TCU cost them ground—dropping 0.6 rating points and trimming their playoff probability to just under 5%. The red-zone efficiency tells part of the story: a 12% TD rate reflects consistency problems in the most critical moments, even as their late-game execution (5.73 leverage performance) kept them alive against the Horned Frogs. Third-down conversion at 41% and fourth-down aggression at 39% suggest Arizona is leaning on timely plays rather than sustained drives. The model projects 8.9 expected wins; staying in the conversation requires a home matchup against Utah on November 15th to reverse the downward momentum.