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Temple

Owls · American Athletic

Head coach K.C. Keeler Year 2 with Temple

Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
5.0
Expected wins
5-7
Proj record
2 to 8
Win range (90%)
#92 (71–113)
Final rank (90%)
0%
Make playoff
0%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

0%

Baseline projection.

  • vs Rhode Island
    Home · Sep 5
  • vs Army
    Home · Sep 25
  • vs UConn
    Home · Oct 10
  • vs Rice
    Home · Nov 20

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2026

37 score
  • Quarterback 0% (2/6 )
  • Offensive line 56% (10/18 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 56% (14/29 )
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 36% (18/33 )
  • Secondary 41% (13/23 )
  • Special teams 98% (3/6 )

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

-0.9 rating

20 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

  • Jayce Freeman WR ← Stony Brook 71 impact
  • JaMair Diaz LB ← Sam Houston 30 impact
  • Saboor Karriem S ← Illinois 26 impact
  • Kolin Dinkins S ← Penn State 16 impact
  • Jaeden Gould S ← UCF 8 impact
  • Joey Schlaffer TE ← Penn State 7 impact

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 34.5% 34th — below avg
  • Red-zone TD rate 21.5% 93th — elite
  • 4th-down aggression 24.1% 7th — bottom tier
  • Late & close 3.6 yds/play 19th — bottom tier

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.