Temple

Owls · American Athletic

Head coach K.C. Keeler Year 1 with Temple

Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs SP+ expected · n=83

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims

5.0

Expected wins

5-7

Proj record

2 to 8

Win range (90%)

#92 (71–113)

Final rank (90%)

Make playoff

Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

Baseline projection.

vs Rhode Island

Home · Sep 5
vs Army

Home · Sep 25
vs UConn

Home · Oct 10
vs Rice

Home · Nov 20

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

61 PCI

Quarterback 60% (3/5 players)
Offensive line 74% (14/19 players)
Skill (RB/WR/TE) 50% (16/32 players)
Front 7 (DL/LB) 68% (21/31 players)
Secondary 56% (10/18 players)
Special teams 57% (4/7 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank

3rd-down conversion 34.5% 34th — below avg
Red-zone TD rate 21.5% 93th — elite
4th-down aggression 24.1% 7th — bottom tier
Late & close 3.6 yds/play 19th — bottom tier

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

Stories about Temple will appear here as they're published. Check back during the season for analysis, hot takes, and game write-ups.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.