Temple
Owls · American Athletic
Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation
Season Projection · 2026 W0
10,000 simsPath to Glory
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
0%
Baseline projection.
- vs Rhode IslandHome · Sep 5
-
vs ArmyHome · Sep 25 -
vs UConnHome · Oct 10 -
vs RiceHome · Nov 20
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Returning production · 2026
- Quarterback 0% (2/6 )
- Offensive line 56% (10/18 players)
- Skill (RB/WR/TE) 56% (14/29 )
- Front 7 (DL/LB) 36% (18/33 )
- Secondary 41% (13/23 )
- Special teams 98% (3/6 )
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
Portal additions · 2026
20 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
- Jayce Freeman WR ← Stony Brook 71 impact
- JaMair Diaz LB ← Sam Houston 30 impact
- Saboor Karriem S ← Illinois 26 impact
- Kolin Dinkins S ← Penn State 16 impact
- Jaeden Gould S ← UCF 8 impact
- Joey Schlaffer TE ← Penn State 7 impact
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Situational efficiency · 2025
FBS percentile rank- 3rd-down conversion 34.5% 34th — below avg
- Red-zone TD rate 21.5% 93th — elite
- 4th-down aggression 24.1% 7th — bottom tier
- Late & close 3.6 yds/play 19th — bottom tier
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Schedule
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
- Wk 1Sep 5vsRhode Island—
- Wk 2Sep 12
vsPenn StateBig Ten7%Win prob - Wk 3Sep 19
atToledoMid-American15%Win prob - Wk 4Sep 25
vsArmyAmerican Athletic40%Win prob - Wk 5Oct 3
atSouth FloridaAmerican Athletic8%Win prob - Wk 6Oct 10
vsUConnFBS Independents28%Win prob - Wk 7Oct 17
vsCharlotteAmerican Athletic95%Win prob - Wk 9Oct 31
atEast CarolinaAmerican Athletic12%Win prob - Wk 10Nov 7
atNavyAmerican Athletic15%Win prob - Wk 11Nov 14
vsUABAmerican Athletic84%Win prob - Wk 12Nov 20
vsRiceAmerican Athletic82%Win prob - Wk 13Nov 27
atMemphisAmerican Athletic13%Win prob
Latest Stories
More coming
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.