Scarlet Knights · Big Ten
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
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Baseline projection.
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
20 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
Rutgers sits at No. 61 overall after an opening-week loss to Massachusetts at home, 37–21. The rating hasn't budged since that result, which GIE pegged as roughly expected for a team of this caliber—not a catastrophic collapse, but a…
Rutgers opened at 1512 ELO. One game later: 1460. That 52-point drop is what happens when you lose a winnable game to an FCS team by 16 at home. The model now gives them a 27% chance to win four games. Cohesion isn't built on week one.…
Rutgers opened 2026 against Massachusetts and lost by 16 points at home, a result significant enough to cost the program 52 rating points—the kind of swing that signals the model's confidence in the gap between preseason expectations and…
Rutgers started the season at 1512 ELO. Now 1460. That 52-point drop isn't a bad week—it's a referendum. Massachusetts just proved what the preseason metrics already knew: this roster doesn't have the margin for error the Big Ten…
Rutgers lost 52 ELO points this week—a sharper decline than the 37-21 home loss to Massachusetts might suggest on its own. The drop reflects both the result and the gap between what the preseason projection assumed and what the field…
Rutgers sits at No. 72 in GIE's ratings after a 5–7 season that included a narrow home loss to Penn State (36–40) in Week 14. The Scarlet Knights have been unable to string together consistent wins in Big Ten play, and their current…
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
