2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Indiana at Rutgers
Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
SHI Stadium
Indiana
Big Ten
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- 25.8
- National rank
- 4
- Proj. wins
- 8.7
- Playoff prob.
- 47%
Rutgers
Big Ten
- Record
- 0-3
- Rating
- -2.4
- National rank
- 77
- Proj. wins
- 2.1
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Indiana
96%
Rutgers
4%
Rutgers 90% CI: 3% – 5% Δ rating 28.2
Indiana is the model's favorite at 96%. Rutgers has a 4% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.0 rating points baked in for Rutgers — venue-specific learned value (n=33 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Indiana offense
55 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Rutgers offense
30 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Overcast
Temperature
74°F
Precipitation
23%
Wind
5 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- SHI Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No