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Purdue

Boilermakers · Big Ten

Head coach Barry Odom Year 1 with Purdue

Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs SP+ expected · n=83

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
3.5
Expected wins
3-7
Proj record
1 to 6
Win range (90%)
#97 (77–116)
Final rank (90%)
0%
Make playoff
0%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

0%

Baseline projection.

  • vs Indiana State
    Home · Sep 4
  • vs Wake Forest
    Home · Sep 12
  • at UCLA
    Away · Sep 20
  • vs Minnesota
    Home · Oct 10

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

30 PCI
  • Quarterback 29% (2/7 players)
  • Offensive line 30% (7/23 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 39% (12/31 players)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 31% (9/29 players)
  • Secondary 24% (6/25 players)
  • Special teams 17% (1/6 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 40.3% 71th — strong
  • Red-zone TD rate 13.4% 35th — below avg
  • 4th-down aggression 34.8% 42th — below avg
  • Late & close 4.5 yds/play 31th — below avg

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

  • Recap

    Purdue: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Purdue sits at 2–10 after a 56–3 home loss to Indiana in Week 14, a result that underscores the widening gap between the Boilermakers and their Big Ten peers. The 53-point margin reflects more than a single bad day; GIE's rating of –6.1…

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.