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2026 Week 5 · Conference game

Purdue at Illinois

Friday, October 2, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT

Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)

Purdue
Big Ten
Record
0-0
Rating
-6.1
National rank
90
Proj. wins
3.5
Playoff prob.
0%
Illinois
Big Ten
Record
0-0
Rating
12.9
National rank
24
Proj. wins
7.8
Playoff prob.
4%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

Purdue
9%
Illinois
91%
Illinois 90% CI: 88% – 94% Δ rating 19.0

Illinois is the model's favorite at 91%. Purdue has a 9% path. Home-field adjustment of +-0.4 rating points baked in for Illinois — venue-specific learned value (n=60 games).

Style fit

How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.

Purdue offense
34 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

Illinois offense
46 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.

Game info

Kickoff
Friday, October 2, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Venue
Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No

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