2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Purdue at Illinois
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 8:15 PM UTC
Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
Purdue
Big Ten
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -2.1
- National rank
- 75
- Proj. wins
- 3.9
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Illinois
Big Ten
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 11.1
- National rank
- 33
- Proj. wins
- 6.3
- Playoff prob.
- 2%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Purdue
17%
Illinois
83%
Illinois 90% CI: 77% – 88% Δ rating 13.2
Illinois is the model's favorite at 83%. Purdue has a 17% path. Home-field adjustment of +-0.4 rating points baked in for Illinois — venue-specific learned value (n=60 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Purdue offense
34 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Illinois offense
46 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Overcast
Temperature
74°F
Precipitation
20%
Wind
9 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 8:15 PM UTC
- Venue
- Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No