Tigers · SEC
Head coach Lane Kiffin Year 2 with LSU
Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation
Their playoff probability after a win or a loss in each pivotal game. (Interactive toggles coming once the scenario sim finishes for this team.)
| Game | Win | Loss | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| at Tennessee | 94% | 0% | +94pp |
| at Arkansas | 93% | 0% | +93pp |
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
| Week | Opponent | Result or win prob.Result or win probability |
|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 Sep 5 | vs Clemson ACC | Win, 51-10 Final |
| Wk 2 Sep 12 | vs Louisiana Tech Sun Belt | Win, 45-14 Final |
| Wk 3 Sep 19 | at Ole Miss SEC | Loss, 24-32 Final |
| Wk 4 Sep 26 | vs Texas A&M SEC | Win, 35-6 Final |
| Wk 5 Oct 3 | vs McNeese Non-FBS | Win, 63-14 Final |
| Wk 6 Oct 10 | at Kentucky SEC | Loss, 34-35 Final |
| Wk 7 Oct 17 | vs Mississippi State SEC | Win, 31-0 Final |
| Wk 8 Oct 24 | at Auburn SEC | Win, 38-17 Final |
| Wk 9 | Bye | |
| Wk 10 Nov 7 | vs Alabama SEC | Loss, 13-31 Final |
| Wk 11 Nov 15 | vs Texas SEC | |
| Wk 12 Nov 21 | at Tennessee SEC | |
| Wk 13 Nov 28 | at Arkansas SEC | |
More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
GIE projects a -3.8 rating drop and a -15.0pp shift in playoff probability if LSU loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=4 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
31 score
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
+2.5 rating
44 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
| Player | From | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Princewill UmanmielenDE From Ole Miss | Ole Miss | 264 |
| Ty BenefieldS From Boise State | Boise State | 203 |
| Jackson HarrisWR From Hawai'i | Hawai'i | 176 |
| Jayce BrownWR From Kansas State | Kansas State | 151 |
| Tre' BrownWR From Old Dominion | Old Dominion | 139 |
| TJ DotteryLB From Ole Miss | Ole Miss | 105 |
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
