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Kent State

Golden Flashes · Mid-American

Head coach Mark Carney Year 1 with Kent State

Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs SP+ expected · n=83

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
3.2
Expected wins
3-6
Proj record
1 to 6
Win range (90%)
#129 (115–136)
Final rank (90%)
0%
Make playoff
0%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

0%

Baseline projection.

  • vs Wofford
    Home · Sep 12
  • vs Ball State
    Home · Sep 26
  • vs Ohio
    Home · Oct 3
  • vs Akron
    Home · Oct 24

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

51 PCI
  • Quarterback 67% (4/6 players)
  • Offensive line 36% (5/14 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 48% (16/33 players)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 47% (14/30 players)
  • Secondary 43% (9/21 players)
  • Special teams 56% (5/9 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

If QB1 is out (Dru Deshields)

GIE projects a -5.9 rating drop and a -23.4pp shift in playoff probability if Kent State loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 30.6% 17th — bottom tier
  • Red-zone TD rate 12.9% 32th — below avg
  • 4th-down aggression 39.6% 65th — average
  • Late & close 4.7 yds/play 39th — below avg

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

  • Recap

    Kent State: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Kent State sits at 5–7 after a 35–31 road win over Northern Illinois in Week 14, a result that briefly interrupted a difficult stretch. The Golden Flashes carry a GIE rating of –19.3, ranking 130th nationally—a position that reflects…

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.