Clemson

Tigers · ACC

Head coach Dabo Swinney

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims

7.7

Expected wins

8-4

Proj record

5 to 11

Win range (90%)

#37 (18–62)

Final rank (90%)

Make playoff

Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

Baseline projection.

vs Miami

Home · Oct 3
at Duke

Away · Nov 21
at Florida State

Away · Oct 31
at LSU

Away · Sep 5
vs Georgia Tech

Home · Nov 14

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

67 PCI

Quarterback 60% (3/5 players)
Offensive line 65% (15/23 players)
Skill (RB/WR/TE) 69% (22/32 players)
Front 7 (DL/LB) 76% (28/37 players)
Secondary 69% (20/29 players)
Special teams 80% (8/10 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

If QB1 is out (Cade Klubnik)

GIE projects a -3.1 rating drop and a -12.2pp shift in playoff probability if Clemson loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank

3rd-down conversion 31.6% 23th — bottom tier
Red-zone TD rate 8.5% 12th — bottom tier
4th-down aggression 42.1% 74th — strong
Late & close 4.8 yds/play 40th — below avg

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

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Clemson sits at No. 34 overall with a 7–6 record after a convincing 28–14 road win over South Carolina in Week 14. The Tigers' rating of 9.5 reflects a team that's found some stability late in the season, though the path to postseason…

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.