Old Dominion: 2026 Week 12 recap

Old Dominion sits at 122nd nationally with a 3–7 record and a rating of −14.3, a modest 0.4-point uptick after beating Coastal Carolina 21–8 in Week 10. The offensive story isn't pretty: a red-zone TD rate of just 14% means scoring opportunities are evaporating in the most critical moments, while a third-down conversion rate of 42% keeps drives from sustaining. The model projects 3.9 expected wins—close to where they stand—and assigns zero playoff probability. Next up: a road trip to UConn in Week 12, a matchup unlikely to shift the trajectory of a season already mathematically eliminated from conference contention.