New Mexico State sits at 2–3 with a rating of –17.8, holding steady from the prior week after a dominant 34–13 home win over Western Kentucky in Week 5. That victory demonstrated offensive firepower, but the rating hasn't budged—a sign the model views it within the noise of the Aggies' underlying talent level. The red-zone efficiency tells part of the story: a 13% touchdown rate in the end zone means New Mexico State is leaving points on the field when opportunities matter most. GIE projects roughly 5 expected wins for the season and assigns zero playoff probability. Next up is a road trip to Florida International in Week 6, a chance to build on recent momentum against a Conference USA opponent.