Navy sits at 1–3 with a rating of –3.7, unchanged from last week after losing to Air Force 14–9 in Week 5. The Midshipmen have managed just 22% of their red-zone possessions in touchdowns, a critical efficiency gap that's dragging down an already thin margin for error. Third-down conversion rate sits at 47%, further limiting their ability to sustain drives. GIE projects Navy will win 4.1 games this season with zero probability of playoff contention or a conference title. Up next is a home matchup against Tulsa on Saturday—a chance to break the two-game slide, though the model sees little path to meaningful postseason relevance at this point.