Michigan scraped past Western Michigan 13–12 in Week 1, a narrow home victory that offered little reassurance about the offense's efficiency. The Wolverines' red-zone touchdown rate of 16% underscores the problem: they're moving the ball adequately but stalling when it matters most. GIE has them at No. 15 nationally with a rating of 17, and that rank feels generous given the execution gaps on display. They'll host Oklahoma this week—a chance to reset the narrative, though the model projects only 6.8 expected wins and a 1% playoff probability. Tightening up near the goal line isn't optional anymore.