Memphis: 2026 Week 3 recap

Memphis sits at 2–0 with a 42–24 Week 1 win over Arkansas State, but GIE's rating hasn't budged—the model holds them at 67th nationally with a 0.3 rating, suggesting the Tigers haven't impressed on the underlying metrics yet. The film tells why: their red-zone efficiency sits at just 21.5%, meaning they're leaving points on the board in situations where lesser teams capitalize. Third-down conversion rate of 38.1% and fourth-down aggression at 37.8% paint a picture of a team grinding rather than dominating. Memphis projects to win around 8.6 games this season, with a 20.2% shot at the AAC title. Next up is a road test at Boise State—a chance to prove this start is genuine growth or confirm they're a fringe team riding schedule luck.