Maryland: 2026 Week 12 recap

Maryland sits at 3–6 after a 34–29 road win at Purdue in Week 10, but GIE's rating remains flat at −2.1, suggesting the Terps haven't moved the needle much despite the victory. The model still projects 3.8 expected wins for the season, underlining how marginal this win felt against the broader body of work. A red-zone TD rate of 8% hints at the efficiency problem: even when Maryland reaches scoring position, conversions are rare. The Terps host Wisconsin this week in a matchup that won't alter playoff odds—they're at 0%—but offers a chance to prove the Purdue result wasn't noise.