Kansas State: 2026 Week 12 recap

Kansas State has plummeted to a 4.5 rating and No. 53 in the model after absorbing a 66–28 home loss to Oklahoma State in Week 10—a 4.3-point rating swing that reflects the damage of a blowout defeat. At 4–5, the Wildcats are essentially out of contention; GIE gives them zero probability of winning the Big 12 or reaching the playoff. The loss exposed serious execution issues: a red-zone touchdown rate of just 17.6% and third-down conversion rate of 36.2% suggest an offense that stalls in critical moments. With a road trip to TCU looming in Week 11, Kansas State needs to stop the bleeding fast, though the model's expected-wins projection of 4.77 hints the trajectory may already be set for the season.