Idaho: 2026 Week 3 recap

Idaho sits at 0–2 after a 38–34 road loss to Cal Poly in Week 1, and the early returns from GIE suggest the Vandals face an uphill climb to bowl eligibility. The model projects 4.6 expected wins for the season and assigns nearly zero probability to either a conference title or playoff appearance. On the field, Idaho's red-zone efficiency has been a particular sticking point—the Vandals converted just 14% of their trips into touchdowns, a rate that compounds when margins are thin. Third-down conversion sits at 40%, another area where small gains add up over a season. Idaho hosts Lamar this week with an opportunity to stop the bleeding, though GIE's current assessment leaves little room for optimism about a turnaround.