Vandals · Sun Belt
Their playoff probability after a win or a loss in each pivotal game. (Interactive toggles coming once the scenario sim finishes for this team.)
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
10 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
GIE projects a -3.0 rating drop and a -12.1pp shift in playoff probability if Idaho loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=2 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
Idaho sits at 0–2 after a 38–34 road loss to Cal Poly in Week 1, and the early returns from GIE suggest the Vandals face an uphill climb to bowl eligibility. The model projects 4.6 expected wins for the season and assigns nearly zero…
Idaho sits at 4–8 after a 37–16 home loss to Idaho State in Week 13, a result that underscored the Vandals' offensive struggles down the stretch. The 21-point margin represents the kind of decisive defeat that typically signals a team…
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
