Vandals · Sun Belt
Interactive playoff-probability scenarios — coming when the 2026 schedule loads.
Once CFBD publishes the 2026 schedule and we run conditional sims against it, this section becomes interactive: tap a Win or Loss on each of Idaho's 5 pivotal games and watch the playoff probability shift. Schedule typically lands mid-July; first sims a few days after.
Until then, the model is still computing Idaho's preliminary 2026 rating — see the Way Too Early Top 25 on the homepage for the headline number.
PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.
GIE projects a -3.0 rating drop and a -12.1pp shift in playoff probability if Idaho loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=2 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
Idaho sits at 4–8 after a 37–16 home loss to Idaho State in Week 13, a result that underscored the Vandals' offensive struggles down the stretch. The 21-point margin represents the kind of decisive defeat that typically signals a team…
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
