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Idaho

Vandals · Sun Belt

Head coach Paul Petrino

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
0.1
Expected wins
0-1
Proj record
0 to 1
Win range (90%)
#74 (66–80)
Final rank (90%)
0%
Make playoff
0%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Interactive playoff-probability scenarios — coming when the 2026 schedule loads.

Once CFBD publishes the 2026 schedule and we run conditional sims against it, this section becomes interactive: tap a Win or Loss on each of Idaho's 5 pivotal games and watch the playoff probability shift. Schedule typically lands mid-July; first sims a few days after.

Until then, the model is still computing Idaho's preliminary 2026 rating — see the Way Too Early Top 25 on the homepage for the headline number.

Returning production · 2025

46 PCI
  • Quarterback 75% (3/4 players)
  • Offensive line 0% (0/1 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 53% (8/15 players)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 40% (6/15 players)
  • Secondary 20% (2/10 players)
  • Special teams 100% (2/2 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

If QB1 is out (Joshua Wood)

GIE projects a -3.0 rating drop and a -12.1pp shift in playoff probability if Idaho loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=2 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 40.3% 71th — strong
  • Red-zone TD rate 14.3% 45th — average
  • 4th-down aggression 43.4% 81th — strong
  • Late & close 6.0 yds/play 73th — strong

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

  • Recap

    Idaho: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Idaho sits at 4–8 after a 37–16 home loss to Idaho State in Week 13, a result that underscored the Vandals' offensive struggles down the stretch. The 21-point margin represents the kind of decisive defeat that typically signals a team…

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.