Houston: 2026 Week 12 recap

Houston sits at No. 25 after a 31-24 home win over Cincinnati in Week 10, a result that lifted the Cougars' rating 0.8 points to 14.1. At 7-2, they're tracking toward 9.1 expected wins and hold a 36% playoff probability—respectable but not commanding. The red-zone TD rate of 15% suggests Houston has left points on the field when it matters most, a constraint that's kept them from running away with games. Third-down conversion sits at 38%, reasonable but not dominant in the Big 12 arms race. They head to Boulder this week to face Colorado, a road trip that carries playoff implications: a loss shrinks their postseason window considerably, while a win keeps the door open.