Fresno State: 2026 Week 3 recap

Fresno State Sits at 0–1 After USC Shutout

Fresno State remains ranked 73rd by GIE after absorbing a 39–0 road loss to USC in Week 1—a result that left the rating unchanged at −1.4, reflecting pre-game expectations in a matchup between the Pac-12's elite and a rebuilding Group of Five program. The shutout exposed underlying efficiency issues: a red-zone touchdown rate of just 10 percent and third-down conversions at 35 percent signal offensive execution problems beyond talent gaps alone. With an expected-win projection of 5.8 for the full season, Fresno State faces a must-flip moment at home against Sacramento State this week. How they respond against a more winnable opponent will clarify whether the USC result was a welcome-to-the-Pac-12 reality check or a symptom of deeper structural problems.