Buffalo: 2026 Week 12 recap

Buffalo sits at 6–3 and ranked 112th by GIE after a 34–31 road win over Miami (OH) in Week 10—a result that nudged the Bulls up 0.9 points in the model's rating, now sitting at −11.1. The victory masks some underlying inefficiency: a red-zone touchdown rate of just 15% suggests Buffalo is leaving scoring opportunities on the field, while a third-down conversion rate of 36% keeps drives from sustaining. The model projects 8.3 expected wins for the season, indicating Buffalo has been fortunate so far. With playoff probability sitting at zero and conference championship odds at half a percent, next week's trip to Ball State becomes a pressure point—a loss there tightens an already tenuous postseason path considerably.