Blue Hens · Conference USA
Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
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Baseline projection.
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
11 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
Delaware sits at 113th overall after a dominant 42–7 win over Merrimack in Week 1, though GIE's rating remains flat at –12.9, suggesting the model views that opener as noise against a weak opponent. The Fightin' Blue Hens face a massive…
Delaware jumped 46 Elo points in one week. That's not a typo—the Fightin' Blue Hens opened with a 42-7 demolition of Merrimack that rewired the model's expectations entirely. Six wins is the baseline now. Anything less would disappoint…
Delaware's 46-point Elo gain traces entirely to a 42-7 win over Merrimack in Week 1, a result that moved the Fightin' Blue Hens from a 1364 rating to 1410. The magnitude of that jump reflects the gap between expectation and outcome: a…
Delaware jumped 46 rating points off a 42-7 demolition of Merrimack. That's a massive single-week move for FCS. The model now pegs them at a 6.2-win expectation—well above the chaos line. One blowout doesn't make a season, but it does…
Delaware's Elo moved 46 points upward to 1410 following a Week 1 win over Merrimack, a jump that reflects the model's assessment of the performance itself rather than a recalibration of underlying roster strength.
Delaware sits at 7–6 after a dominant 61–31 home win over UTEP in Week 14, a result that underscored the Fightin' Blue Hens' capacity to execute when the matchup favors them. The victory kept the program competitive in Conference USA's…
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
