4thand4cast

Search the site.

Try , , or .

Powered by Pagefind

Akron

Zips · Mid-American

Head coach Joe Moorhead Year 5 with Akron

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
4.5
Expected wins
5-7
Proj record
1 to 8
Win range (90%)
#117 (96–133)
Final rank (90%)
0%
Make playoff
1%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

0%

Baseline projection.

  • vs Robert Morris
    Home · Sep 12
  • vs UNLV
    Home · Sep 26
  • vs Eastern Michigan
    Home · Oct 10
  • at Kent State
    Away · Oct 24

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2026

84 score
  • Quarterback 100% (5/5 )
  • Offensive line 79% (15/19 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 87% (23/26 )
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 64% (26/29 )
  • Secondary 65% (16/18 )
  • Special teams 100% (6/7 )

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

If QB1 is out (Ben Finley)

GIE projects a -6.9 rating drop and a -27.6pp shift in playoff probability if Akron loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 32.0% 25th — below avg
  • Red-zone TD rate 10.7% 19th — bottom tier
  • 4th-down aggression 29.4% 19th — bottom tier
  • Late & close 4.5 yds/play 30th — below avg

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

  • Hot Take

    Akron holds 0 ELO points this week

    Akron's Elo rating sits at 1326—which puts them below the median FBS program by 90 points. The model gives them a 4.6-win expectation. That's not a floor. That's a ceiling they'll need to hit cleanly.

  • Analysis

    Akron holds 0 ELO points this week

    Akron's rating has flatlined at 1326 ELO, a position that translates to a projected 4.6 wins across a full schedule. The model gives the Zips a 19% chance of reaching six wins—the threshold that typically marks the difference between a…

  • Hot Take

    Akron holds 0 ELO points this week

    Akron started 2026 with an ELO rating of 1326—the exact floor where "rebuilding" stops being a plan and becomes a permanent address. The model expects 4.5 wins. That's not a season. That's a participation certificate with a schedule…

  • Analysis

    Akron holds 0 ELO points this week

    Akron's rating held flat at 1326 ELO this week, a stability that masks the deeper question facing the program: whether stasis is sustainable, or merely a pause before decline.

  • Hot Take

    Akron holds 0 ELO points this week

    Akron opened 2026 at 1326 ELO—a rating that says "wins 4-5 games, maybe 6 if the math breaks right." The model gives them less than a 1% chance at 11 wins. That's not pessimism. That's what the schedule and roster actually look like.…

  • Analysis

    Akron holds 0 ELO points this week

    Akron enters 2026 with an Elo rating of 1326, a baseline that projects the Zips to win 4.6 games across a 12-game schedule. That distribution is instructive: the model gives Akron a 19.28% chance of finishing 4-8, the single most likely…

  • Hot Take

    Akron holds 0 ELO points this week

    Akron carries a 1326 Elo into 2026 — that's 74 points below the FBS mean. The model expects 4.6 wins. There's a 20% chance they finish 4-8 or worse. That's not a rebuild timeline. That's a "we're genuinely bad at this" baseline.

  • Analysis

    Akron holds 0 ELO points this week

    Akron's rating sits at 1326 ELO, which places the program in the lower third of FBS, and the distribution of likely outcomes this season offers little reason for optimism. The model projects 4.59 wins across a 12-game schedule—a figure…

  • Hot Take

    Akron holds 0 ELO points this week

    Akron's 1326 ELO is the lowest in FBS. Not a ranking quirk—it's math. They're projected to win 4.6 games. The floor is real. There's no trap-game narrative here, no "any given Saturday" energy. This is structural.

  • Analysis

    Akron holds 0 ELO points this week

    Akron enters 2026 with an ELO rating of 1326, a baseline that translates to an expected win total of 4.56 games across a 12-game schedule. The model distributes outcomes across the full range of possibility: there's a 20% chance the Zips…

  • Hot Take

    Akron holds 0 ELO points this week

    Akron entered 2026 with an ELO of 1326—bottom tier, predictably. No movement this week because they haven't played. The model gives them a 45% chance at 4 wins. That's not a season; that's a calculation. They'll need to steal games they…

  • Analysis

    Akron holds 0 ELO points this week

    Akron's rating remains flat at 1326 ELO, a stasis that reflects the deeper stagnation in the program's competitive profile. With no recent games to move the needle, the model's projection holds: the Zips are expected to win 4.57 games…

  • Hot Take

    Akron holds 0 ELO points this week

    Akron's 1326 ELO rating sits 74 points below the FBS median. That's the gap between "rebuilding" and "structural problem." The win distribution peaks at 4 wins—not because they're close to five, but because five is where the floor ends.…

  • Analysis

    Akron holds 0 ELO points this week

    Akron enters 2026 with an ELO rating of 1326, which positions the Zips near the basement of the FBS landscape. The model projects 4.56 expected wins across a 12-game schedule—a median outcome that lands somewhere between three and five…

  • Hot Take

    Akron holds 0 ELO points this week

    Akron's 1326 ELO puts them in the bottom 5% of FBS. They're expected to win 4.5 games. That's not a rebuild. That's not a "process." That's a program operating at a structural disadvantage so severe that nearly half their schedule becomes…

  • Analysis

    Akron holds 0 ELO points this week

    Akron's 1326 ELO rating places the Zips squarely in the lower half of the FBS, a position that carries a specific mathematical consequence: the model distributes their 12-game season across a tight band of outcomes, with a median…

  • Recap

    Akron: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Akron sits at 5–7 after a 19–16 road win over Bowling Green in Week 13, a result that marked one of the few bright spots in an otherwise difficult season. The Zips hold a GIE rating of –13.9, placing them 117th nationally—a reflection of…

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.