4thand4cast ↳ powered by GIE
Sign in

Search 4thand4cast

Search the site.

Try , , or .

Powered by Pagefind

Akron

Zips · Mid-American

GIE rank
#136
of 138 FBS
Rating
1264
2026 Week 12
Record
1-8
2026 season
Proj record
2-10
12-game season

Head coach Joe Moorhead Year 5 with Akron

Season projection

2026 W12 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
1.5
0.5 more wins in 3 left
Win range (90%)
1 to 3
Final rank (90%)
#136 (132–138)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
0%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes Akron's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 3 at Wake Forest ACC Loss, 16-38 Final
Wk 2 Sep 12 vs Robert Morris Non-FBS Win, 45-10 Final
Wk 3 Sep 19 at Minnesota Big Ten Loss, 7-41 Final
Wk 4 Sep 26 vs UNLV Mountain West Loss, 10-38 Final
Wk 5 Oct 3 at Central Michigan Mid-American Loss, 17-41 Final
Wk 6 Oct 10 vs Eastern Michigan Mid-American Loss, 23-25 Final
Wk 7 Oct 17 at Miami (OH) Mid-American Loss, 14-34 Final
Wk 8 Oct 24 at Kent State Mid-American Loss, 20-35 Final
Wk 9 Bye
Wk 10 Nov 4 vs Ohio Mid-American Loss, 20-28 Final
Wk 11 Nov 11 vs Western Michigan Mid-American Win probability: 6%
Wk 12 Nov 18 at Massachusetts Mid-American Win probability: 9%
Wk 13 Nov 27 vs Buffalo Mid-American Win probability: 20%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    Akron: 2026 Week 12 recap

    Akron sits at 1–8 with a rating of –24.8, essentially unchanged from last week despite dropping a close home contest to Ohio 20–28 back in Week 10. The Zips remain firmly anchored in the basement of GIE's rankings, with virtually no path…

  • Recap

    Akron: 2026 Week 11 recap

    Akron remains anchored at 135th in the GIE rating with a 1–7 record through Week 10. The Zips haven't moved since last week—a 35–20 loss to Kent State in Week 8 underscored deeper offensive struggles. The numbers are unforgiving:…

  • Recap

    Akron: 2026 Week 7 recap

    Akron sits at 1–4 after a 41–17 road loss to Central Michigan in Week 5, holding a rating of –23.1 and ranked 132nd by GIE. The Zips have flatlined in the ratings since last week—no movement—which underscores how thoroughly they've been…

Show 9 more Akron stories
  • Recap

    Akron: 2026 Week 3 recap

    Akron sits at 0–1 after a 38–16 loss to Wake Forest in Week 1, holding a rating of –22.9 and ranking 130th nationally. The Zips haven't moved in GIE's assessment since that defeat, suggesting consistency rather than collapse. The…

  • Analysis

    Akron holds 0 ELO points this week

    Akron's rating has flatlined at 1326 ELO, a position that translates to a projected 4.6 wins across a full schedule. The model gives the Zips a 19% chance of reaching six wins—the threshold that typically marks the difference between a…

  • Analysis

    Akron holds 0 ELO points this week

    Akron's rating held flat at 1326 ELO this week, a stability that masks the deeper question facing the program: whether stasis is sustainable, or merely a pause before decline.

  • Analysis

    Akron holds 0 ELO points this week

    Akron enters 2026 with an Elo rating of 1326, a baseline that projects the Zips to win 4.6 games across a 12-game schedule. That distribution is instructive: the model gives Akron a 19.28% chance of finishing 4-8, the single most likely…

  • Analysis

    Akron holds 0 ELO points this week

    Akron's rating sits at 1326 ELO, which places the program in the lower third of FBS, and the distribution of likely outcomes this season offers little reason for optimism. The model projects 4.59 wins across a 12-game schedule—a figure…

  • Analysis

    Akron holds 0 ELO points this week

    Akron enters 2026 with an ELO rating of 1326, a baseline that translates to an expected win total of 4.56 games across a 12-game schedule. The model distributes outcomes across the full range of possibility: there's a 20% chance the Zips…

  • Analysis

    Akron holds 0 ELO points this week

    Akron's rating remains flat at 1326 ELO, a stasis that reflects the deeper stagnation in the program's competitive profile. With no recent games to move the needle, the model's projection holds: the Zips are expected to win 4.57 games…

  • Analysis

    Akron holds 0 ELO points this week

    Akron enters 2026 with an ELO rating of 1326, which positions the Zips near the basement of the FBS landscape. The model projects 4.56 expected wins across a 12-game schedule—a median outcome that lands somewhere between three and five…

  • Analysis

    Akron holds 0 ELO points this week

    Akron's 1326 ELO rating places the Zips squarely in the lower half of the FBS, a position that carries a specific mathematical consequence: the model distributes their 12-game season across a tight band of outcomes, with a median…

In the news

Show 9 more headlines

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

If QB1 is out

Ben Finley

GIE projects a -6.9 rating drop and a -27.6pp shift in playoff probability if Akron loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Returning production · 2026

79 score

  • Quarterback 100% (5/5)
  • Offensive line 74% (14/19) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 81% (21/26)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 51% (21/29)
  • Secondary 54% (15/18)
  • Special teams 96% (5/7)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

−1.4 rating

17 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Akron incoming transfers
Player From Impact
Miles BurrisWR From Charlotte Charlotte 24
Dwight NunooLB From Florida International Florida International 9
Reese PoffenbargerQB From North Texas North Texas 2
Zach HobsonCB From Old Dominion Old Dominion 1
Caiden NewsomeCB From Holy Cross Holy Cross 1
Vaughn HighlandDT From Arkansas-Pine Bluff Arkansas-Pine Bluff 1

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 32.0%
    25th — below avg
  • Red-zone TD rate 10.7%
    19th — bottom tier
  • 4th-down aggression 29.4%
    19th — bottom tier
  • Late & close 4.5 yds/play
    30th — below avg

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.