San Diego State: 2025 Week 16 recap

San Diego State sits at No. 43 overall with a 9–4 record and a GIE rating of 6.7. The Aztecs took a loss to New Mexico last week, falling 23–17 on the road in Week 14—a result that underscores the tightness of the Pac-12 middle tier. That defeat didn't dramatically shift their standing, but it highlighted how thin margins operate at this level: one possession separates ranked from unranked. With the regular season winding down, San Diego State remains in the tournament-eligible range, though the path forward demands consistency against remaining opponents. The model views them as a capable mid-tier squad, but recent results suggest they're vulnerable to teams that can control line of scrimmage and clock.