Purdue sits at 2–3 after a road win at Illinois in Week 5, but the rating hasn't budged—GIE still has them at –6.4, ranked 94th. The Boilermakers are converting just 40% on third down and a concerning 13% of red-zone drives into touchdowns, mechanical failures that limit scoring opportunities. Fourth-down aggression at 35% suggests caution in high-leverage moments, though late-game performance (+4.49) shows some poise when games tighten. Minnesota visits this week with Purdue needing to tighten execution in the red zone and on third downs. The model projects 4.6 wins for the season; playoff and conference-title probabilities are zero.