Oregon: 2026 Week 12 recap

Oregon sits at 15th overall with a 6–3 record after a stunning 41–28 road win over Ohio State in Week 10—a result that barely budged their rating, suggesting GIE views it as closer to expectation than the final margin implies. The Ducks' third-down conversion rate of 42% and red-zone touchdown efficiency of 19% reveal an offense that moves the ball inconsistently and stalls near the goal line, limiting their upside. They're projected for 8.3 expected wins and face a playoff probability near zero, meaning their path has narrowed considerably. Next up: hosting Michigan in Week 11, a matchup that will test whether that Ohio State performance was a floor-raising statement or a one-off.