Navy: 2026 Week 12 recap

Navy sits at 3–6 and rank 87 overall after a seven-point home win over Temple in Week 10, but the rating has slipped 1.5 points since then, landing at −3.1. The offense showed life in that victory—42 points is respectable—yet the underlying numbers reveal cracks: a red-zone TD rate of just 22% and third-down conversion at 47% suggest missed efficiency in critical moments. GIE projects 4.2 expected wins for the season and assigns zero playoff probability, a stark reality for a team chasing relevance in the American. Navy hosts Memphis this Saturday looking to build on the Temple result, though the rating trajectory suggests the model sees limited room for a turnaround in the remaining stretch.