Boise State: 2026 Week 3 recap

Boise State remains ranked 49th after dropping its Week 1 opener at Oregon, 34–27, with no movement in the model's rating. The Broncos' red-zone efficiency is a legitimate concern—converting just 16% of trips into touchdowns—but their third-down conversion rate of 42% and fourth-down aggression at 43% suggest they're willing to be creative when opportunities narrow. GIE projects them to win 5.7 games this season, a workable baseline for the Pac-12, though the path to a conference title sits at 11% probability. Memphis visits Boise State this week; a home win would steadily rebuild confidence after the road loss to Oregon.