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Kansas

Jayhawks · Big 12

Head coach Lance Leipold Year 5 with Kansas

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
6.3
Expected wins
6-6
Proj record
3 to 9
Win range (90%)
#57 (32–85)
Final rank (90%)
0%
Make playoff
1%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

0%

Baseline projection.

  • at TCU
    Away · Oct 31
  • at Kansas State
    Away · Oct 17
  • vs BYU
    Home · Nov 21
  • vs Missouri
    Home · Sep 12
  • at Arizona State
    Neutral site · Sep 19

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

57 PCI
  • Quarterback 67% (4/6 players)
  • Offensive line 59% (13/22 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 48% (16/33 players)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 52% (17/33 players)
  • Secondary 59% (13/22 players)
  • Special teams 38% (3/8 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 40.6% 73th — strong
  • Red-zone TD rate 22.0% 94th — elite
  • 4th-down aggression 40.6% 68th — average
  • Late & close 5.5 yds/play 63th — average

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

  • Recap

    Kansas: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Kansas sits at 5–7 after falling to Utah 31–21 at home in Week 14, a loss that underscores the Jayhawks' inconsistency down the stretch. The model rates them at 4.1, placing them 58th nationally—a squad capable of competitive moments but…

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.