2026 Week 4
App State at NC State
Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 11:30 PM UTC
Carter-Finley Stadium
App State
Sun Belt
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- -6.3
- National rank
- 94
- Proj. wins
- 8.6
- Playoff prob.
- 4%
NC State
ACC
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- 5.0
- National rank
- 57
- Proj. wins
- 6.0
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
App State
13%
NC State
87%
NC State 90% CI: 82% – 91% Δ rating 11.3
NC State is the model's favorite at 87%. App State has a 13% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.0 rating points baked in for NC State — venue-specific night-game value (n=59 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
App State offense
40 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
NC State offense
38 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Clear
Temperature
62°F
Precipitation
0%
Wind
5 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 11:30 PM UTC
- Venue
- Carter-Finley Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No