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2026 Week 11 · Conference game

San José State at Air Force

Friday, November 13, 2026 · 11:00 PM CST

Falcon Stadium

San José State
Mountain West
Record
0-0
Rating
-14.3
National rank
118
Proj. wins
4.4
Playoff prob.
0%
Air Force
Mountain West
Record
0-0
Rating
-3.2
National rank
80
Proj. wins
6.4
Playoff prob.
0%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

San José State
16%
Air Force
84%
Air Force 90% CI: 79% – 89% Δ rating 11.1

Air Force is the model's favorite at 84%. San José State has a 16% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.4 rating points baked in for Air Force — venue-specific learned value (n=48 games).

Style fit

How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.

San José State offense
52 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

Air Force offense
24 / 100

Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.

Game info

Kickoff
Friday, November 13, 2026 · 11:00 PM CST
Venue
Falcon Stadium
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No

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