Conference game
Fresno State at Texas State
Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 4:00 PM EST
GIE win probability
Fresno State 40% Underdog
Texas State 60% Favorite
Texas State is the model's favorite at 60%. Fresno State has a 40% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.3 rating points baked in for Texas State — venue-specific learned value (n=51 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Fresno State offense
Higher fit 36 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Texas State offense
32 / 100 Style-neutral matchup