2026 Week 7 · Conference game
Northwestern at Michigan State
Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
Spartan Stadium
Northwestern
Big Ten
- Record
- 2-0
- Rating
- 7.7
- National rank
- 44
- Proj. wins
- 7.6
- Playoff prob.
- 11%
Michigan State
Big Ten
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 2.3
- National rank
- 65
- Proj. wins
- 6.1
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Northwestern
65%
Michigan State
35%
Michigan State 90% CI: 27% – 44% Δ rating 5.4
Northwestern is the model's favorite at 65%. Michigan State has a 35% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.4 rating points baked in for Michigan State — venue-specific learned value (n=59 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Northwestern offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Michigan State offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Spartan Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No