2026 Week 3
Michigan State at Notre Dame
Friday, September 18, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Notre Dame Stadium
Michigan State
Big Ten
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -3.4
- National rank
- 82
- Proj. wins
- 4.2
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Notre Dame
FBS Independents
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 24.4
- National rank
- 5
- Proj. wins
- 10.1
- Playoff prob.
- 94%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Michigan State
2%
Notre Dame
98%
Notre Dame 90% CI: 97% – 98% Δ rating 27.8
Notre Dame is the model's favorite at 98%. Michigan State has a 2% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.5 rating points baked in for Notre Dame — venue-specific learned value (n=64 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Michigan State offense
31 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Notre Dame offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, September 18, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Notre Dame Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No