Oregon State at Houston
Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 12:00 PM EDT
Final score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Oregon State | 7 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 20 |
 Houston Winner | 9 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 33 |
GIE pre-game call: Houston at 84%. Hit
Pre-game
GIE win probability
Oregon State 16% Underdog
Houston 84% Favorite
Houston is the model's favorite at 84%. Oregon State has a 16% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.0 rating points baked in for Houston — venue-specific learned value (n=50 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Recaps
- Oregon State recap Oregon State: 2026 Week 12 recap Oregon State's collapse is real. The Beavers dropped 2.8 rating points after a 42–21 home loss to Texas State in Week 10, falling to No. 56 overall with a 5–4 record. That's not a stumble; it's a structural problem. GIE now projects them…
- Houston recap Houston: 2026 Week 12 recap Houston sits at No. 25 after a 31-24 home win over Cincinnati in Week 10, a result that lifted the Cougars' rating 0.8 points to 14.1. At 7-2, they're tracking toward 9.1 expected wins and hold a 36% playoff probability—respectable but…