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2025 Week 1 FINAL · Neutral site

Missouri State at Arkansas State

Thursday, December 18, 2025 · 8:00 PM CST

Ford Center At The Star

28
Missouri State
Final
34
Arkansas State
Team 1234 T
Missouri State 70021 28
Arkansas State 141073 34

GIE pre-game call: Arkansas State at 56%. Hit.

Recaps

Missouri State
Conference USA
Record
7-6
Rating
-10.7
National rank
108
Proj. wins
0.2
Playoff prob.
0%
Arkansas State
Sun Belt
Record
7-6
Rating
-8.8
National rank
100
Proj. wins
0.8
Playoff prob.
0%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

Missouri State
44%
Arkansas State
56%
Arkansas State 90% CI: 47% – 65% Δ rating 1.9

Arkansas State is the model's favorite at 56%. Missouri State has a 44% path. No home-field adjustment applied (neutral site).

Game info

Kickoff
Thursday, December 18, 2025 · 8:00 PM CST
Venue
Ford Center At The Star
Conference game
No
Neutral site
Yes

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