2025 Week 1 FINAL · Neutral site
Toledo at Louisville
Tuesday, December 23, 2025 · 1:00 PM CST
FAU Stadium
22
Toledo
Final
27
Louisville
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 22 |
| Louisville | 7 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 27 |
GIE pre-game call: Louisville at 69%. Hit.
Recaps
Toledo
Mid-American
- Record
- 8-5
- Rating
- 6.0
- National rank
- 48
- Proj. wins
- 8.7
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Louisville
ACC
- Record
- 9-4
- Rating
- 12.4
- National rank
- 25
- Proj. wins
- 7.8
- Playoff prob.
- 9%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Toledo
31%
Louisville
69%
Louisville 90% CI: 60% – 76% Δ rating 6.4
Louisville is the model's favorite at 69%. Toledo has a 31% path. No home-field adjustment applied (neutral site).
Game info
- Kickoff
- Tuesday, December 23, 2025 · 1:00 PM CST
- Venue
- FAU Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- Yes