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2025 Week 11 FINAL · Conference game

Northern Illinois at Toledo

Wednesday, November 5, 2025 · 6:00 PM CST

Glass Bowl

3
Northern Illinois
Final
42
Toledo
Team 1234 T
Northern Illinois 3000 3
Toledo 72177 42

GIE pre-game call: Toledo at 95%. Hit.

Recaps

Weekly recaps generate Monday morning. Check back for both teams' write-ups.

Northern Illinois
Mountain West
Record
3-9
Rating
-16.7
National rank
128
Proj. wins
3.6
Playoff prob.
0%
Toledo
Mid-American
Record
8-5
Rating
6.0
National rank
48
Proj. wins
8.7
Playoff prob.
0%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

Northern Illinois
5%
Toledo
95%
Toledo 90% CI: 93% – 97% Δ rating 22.7

Toledo is the model's favorite at 95%. Northern Illinois has a 5% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.5 rating points baked in for Toledo — venue-specific learned value (n=49 games).

Game info

Kickoff
Wednesday, November 5, 2025 · 6:00 PM CST
Venue
Glass Bowl
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No

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