2025 Week 11 FINAL · Conference game
Northern Illinois at Toledo
Wednesday, November 5, 2025 · 6:00 PM CST
Glass Bowl
3
Northern Illinois
Final
42
Toledo
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Illinois | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Toledo | 7 | 21 | 7 | 7 | 42 |
GIE pre-game call: Toledo at 95%. Hit.
Recaps
Weekly recaps generate Monday morning. Check back for both teams' write-ups.
Northern Illinois
Mountain West
- Record
- 3-9
- Rating
- -16.7
- National rank
- 128
- Proj. wins
- 3.6
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Toledo
Mid-American
- Record
- 8-5
- Rating
- 6.0
- National rank
- 48
- Proj. wins
- 8.7
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Northern Illinois
5%
Toledo
95%
Toledo 90% CI: 93% – 97% Δ rating 22.7
Toledo is the model's favorite at 95%. Northern Illinois has a 5% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.5 rating points baked in for Toledo — venue-specific learned value (n=49 games).
Game info
- Kickoff
- Wednesday, November 5, 2025 · 6:00 PM CST
- Venue
- Glass Bowl
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No