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2025 Week 12 FINAL · Conference game

Texas State at Southern Miss

Saturday, November 15, 2025 · 2:30 PM CST

M. M. Roberts Stadium

41
Texas State
Final
14
Southern Miss
Team 1234 T
Texas State 1017014 41
Southern Miss 0077 14

GIE pre-game call: Texas State at 77%. Hit.

Recaps

Weekly recaps generate Monday morning. Check back for both teams' write-ups.

Texas State
Pac-12
Record
7-6
Rating
2.3
National rank
65
Proj. wins
5.9
Playoff prob.
0%
Southern Miss
Sun Belt
Record
7-6
Rating
-7.1
National rank
94
Proj. wins
1.2
Playoff prob.
0%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

Texas State
77%
Southern Miss
23%
Southern Miss 90% CI: 17% – 31% Δ rating 9.4

Texas State is the model's favorite at 77%. Southern Miss has a 23% path. Home-field adjustment of +-0.1 rating points baked in for Southern Miss — venue-specific learned value (n=50 games).

Game info

Kickoff
Saturday, November 15, 2025 · 2:30 PM CST
Venue
M. M. Roberts Stadium
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No

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