4thand4cast

Search the site.

Try , , or .

Powered by Pagefind

2025 Week 11 FINAL · Conference game

Southern Miss at Arkansas State

Saturday, November 8, 2025 · 11:00 AM CST

Centennial Bank Stadium

27
Southern Miss
Final
21
Arkansas State
Team 1234 T
Southern Miss 10737 27
Arkansas State 70014 21

GIE pre-game call: Arkansas State at 52%. Miss.

Recaps

Weekly recaps generate Monday morning. Check back for both teams' write-ups.

Southern Miss
Sun Belt
Record
7-6
Rating
-7.1
National rank
94
Proj. wins
1.2
Playoff prob.
0%
Arkansas State
Sun Belt
Record
7-6
Rating
-8.8
National rank
100
Proj. wins
0.8
Playoff prob.
0%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

Southern Miss
48%
Arkansas State
52%
Arkansas State 90% CI: 43% – 61% Δ rating 1.7

Arkansas State is the model's favorite at 52%. Southern Miss has a 48% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.3 rating points baked in for Arkansas State — venue-specific learned value (n=47 games).

Game info

Kickoff
Saturday, November 8, 2025 · 11:00 AM CST
Venue
Centennial Bank Stadium
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No

← Home