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2025 Week 10 FINAL · Conference game

Arkansas State at Troy

Saturday, November 1, 2025 · 7:00 PM CDT

Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)

23
Arkansas State
Final
10
Troy
Team 1234 T
Arkansas State 17033 23
Troy 0307 10

GIE pre-game call: Troy at 58%. Miss.

Recaps

Weekly recaps generate Monday morning. Check back for both teams' write-ups.

Arkansas State
Sun Belt
Record
7-6
Rating
-8.8
National rank
100
Proj. wins
0.8
Playoff prob.
0%
Troy
Sun Belt
Record
8-6
Rating
-4.8
National rank
87
Proj. wins
1.0
Playoff prob.
0%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

Arkansas State
42%
Troy
58%
Troy 90% CI: 49% – 67% Δ rating 4.0

Troy is the model's favorite at 58%. Arkansas State has a 42% path. Home-field adjustment of +-1.3 rating points baked in for Troy — venue-specific learned value (n=50 games).

Game info

Kickoff
Saturday, November 1, 2025 · 7:00 PM CDT
Venue
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No

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