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2025 Week 7 FINAL · Conference game

Troy at Texas State

Saturday, October 11, 2025 · 7:00 PM CDT

Bobcat Stadium (TX)

48
Troy
Final
41
Texas State
Team 1234OT T
Troy 71010147 48
Texas State 283730 41

GIE pre-game call: Texas State at 73%. Miss.

Recaps

Weekly recaps generate Monday morning. Check back for both teams' write-ups.

Troy
Sun Belt
Record
8-6
Rating
-4.8
National rank
87
Proj. wins
1.0
Playoff prob.
0%
Texas State
Pac-12
Record
7-6
Rating
2.3
National rank
65
Proj. wins
5.9
Playoff prob.
0%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

Troy
27%
Texas State
73%
Texas State 90% CI: 66% – 80% Δ rating 7.1

Texas State is the model's favorite at 73%. Troy has a 27% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.1 rating points baked in for Texas State — venue-specific learned value (n=52 games).

Game info

Kickoff
Saturday, October 11, 2025 · 7:00 PM CDT
Venue
Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No

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